KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

82%

71%

26%

23%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 56.05u

AIFSNO 44.0¢Risks 43.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.95u · AIFS −43.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	22.7%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	25.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	6.2%	33.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	57.0%	28.1%	1.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	76.3%	66.3%	19.9%	—	42.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	56.8%	62.7%	14.6%	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	53.2%	54.8%	8.1%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	55.0%	32.2%	12.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	60.2%	22.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	82.2%	49.1%	67.0%	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	90.8%	32.6%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	88.5%	40.9%	97.8%	—	62.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	79.7%	78.3%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	90.6%	45.1%	89.8%	—	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	93.0%	56.0%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	73.2%	68.8%	99.1%	—	63.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	88.9%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	95.5%	74.5%	99.5%	—	60.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	92.9%	92.5%	0.1%	—	56.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	90.6%	84.7%	99.6%	0.0%	54.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	93.0%	93.4%	99.7%	—	61.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	93.7%	82.6%	99.8%	97.4%	72.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	97.2%	99.7%	—	73.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	78.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	74.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	76.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	66.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗