KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

26%

22%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.80u · WN2 −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	5.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	14.5%	3.5%	0.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	28.5%	19.4%	1.7%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.2%	15.5%	0.8%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.3%	10.0%	0.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.0%	2.7%	0.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	10.7%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	26.9%	5.9%	13.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	40.2%	2.1%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	33.9%	3.2%	65.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.3%	19.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	34.8%	3.4%	33.0%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	39.1%	5.4%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.8%	9.4%	70.6%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	26.2%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	41.3%	10.4%	74.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	30.5%	29.6%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	23.3%	15.3%	73.0%	0.0%	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	26.3%	27.3%	74.7%	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	25.6%	10.6%	75.4%	40.1%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	36.1%	69.8%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	74.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	71.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗