KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

26%

22%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.80u · WN2 −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:30+00:00	3.8%	11.5%	2.8%	65.9%	12.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	3.8%	18.5%	2.8%	65.9%	12.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	3.8%	18.5%	2.8%	65.9%	12.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	3.8%	18.5%	2.8%	65.9%	12.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	2.1%	18.5%	2.8%	65.9%	12.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	2.1%	18.5%	2.9%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	2.9%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	2.9%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	2.9%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	1.6%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	1.6%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	2.1%	17.9%	1.6%	65.9%	12.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	1.6%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	1.6%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	1.6%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	1.6%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	1.6%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	6.1%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	2.4%	17.9%	2.0%	54.4%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	2.0%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	2.0%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	2.0%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	2.0%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	0.5%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	2.9%	17.9%	0.5%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	2.9%	19.5%	0.5%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	2.9%	19.5%	0.5%	12.7%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	1.4%	19.6%	0.5%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	1.4%	19.6%	0.5%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	0.5%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	0.5%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	1.3%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	1.3%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	1.3%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	1.3%	12.8%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.3%	56.6%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.3%	56.6%	36.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.3%	56.6%	36.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.3%	56.6%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	2.0%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	1.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	4.4%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	1.6%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	1.6%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	1.6%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	1.6%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	1.6%	18.9%	2.0%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	1.6%	22.3%	0.6%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	1.6%	22.3%	0.6%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	1.6%	22.3%	0.6%	56.6%	25.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	0.6%	16.2%	25.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	0.6%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	0.6%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	0.6%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	0.6%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	4.0%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	26.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	1.3%	16.2%	26.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	1.3%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	5.1%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	2.2%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	3.8%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	3.8%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	4.7%	22.3%	3.8%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	9.5%	22.3%	3.8%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	9.5%	22.3%	3.8%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	9.5%	22.3%	3.8%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	9.5%	22.3%	3.8%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	9.5%	22.3%	3.8%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	5.9%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	5.9%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	9.5%	36.9%	5.9%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	8.8%	36.9%	5.9%	34.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	8.8%	36.9%	6.0%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	6.0%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	6.0%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	4.6%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	4.6%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	4.6%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	8.8%	34.3%	4.6%	34.5%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.6%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.6%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.6%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.6%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	9.6%	34.3%	4.3%	6.4%	49.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	1.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	1.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	1.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	6.9%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	37.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.3%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	5.7%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	6.6%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	6.6%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	6.6%	26.3%	2.1%	42.3%	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	74.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	71.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗