KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

73%

56%

36%

22%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.2%	47.3%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	34.9%	11.9%	4.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	7.1%	21.0%	31.7%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	23.9%	47.7%	39.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	74.1%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	73.2%	63.3%	75.2%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	36.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	38.5%	50.8%	74.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	22.0%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	47.4%	43.0%	51.7%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	54.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	44.5%	72.6%	78.4%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	55.7%	63.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	66.1%	63.4%	77.5%	80.3%	21.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	68.3%	—	—	28.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	71.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗