KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

73%

56%

36%

22%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	47.6%	75.7%	35.8%	23.9%	58.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	47.6%	75.7%	35.8%	23.9%	58.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	47.6%	75.7%	35.8%	23.9%	58.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	47.6%	75.7%	35.8%	23.9%	58.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	37.2%	75.7%	35.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	37.2%	75.7%	35.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	37.2%	75.7%	35.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	37.2%	75.7%	35.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	37.2%	75.7%	35.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	37.2%	73.2%	27.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	37.2%	73.2%	27.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	37.2%	73.2%	27.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	36.4%	73.2%	27.8%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	27.7%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	27.7%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	27.7%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	27.7%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	34.3%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	34.3%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	36.3%	73.2%	34.3%	54.0%	61.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	34.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	34.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	34.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	34.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	34.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	27.0%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	36.3%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	33.1%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	21.9%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	72.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	21.9%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	72.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	21.9%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	72.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	21.9%	73.2%	31.4%	54.8%	72.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	21.9%	72.6%	36.0%	56.2%	72.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	71.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗