WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
63%
ICON
45%
AIFS
32%
WN2
20%
HRES
15%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u
VS
HRESNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.40u · HRES −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 47.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 59.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 34.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 62.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.3%————18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0011.2%————23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%————19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%————10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.1%————14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.2%————6.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.2%————9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%————12.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:009.0%————6.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%————6.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.2%—13.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.2%—3.9%——10.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%—2.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.8%————15.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%—10.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.4%————6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.3%—8.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——6.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.4%—4.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%3.6%34.2%——6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%—27.3%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%23.0%6.3%1.9%—3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%—8.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0010.6%3.3%12.0%19.9%—18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:009.8%—11.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0015.5%13.8%33.0%25.8%—17.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—60.0%——5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0013.6%58.7%47.6%61.0%—5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:009.2%—22.4%——9.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:005.8%23.8%34.5%59.1%—4.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:008.5%11.5%27.4%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:004.5%30.7%26.9%34.6%—7.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:003.9%36.8%47.3%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:001.9%27.4%55.5%62.7%—5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:002.4%37.0%44.3%——12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.0%47.1%44.2%60.6%64.3%9.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.0%—49.0%——14.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble63%74.2°F5.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
National Blend46%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON45%71.8°F6.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single32%70.2°F5.0°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%69.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS HRES15%66.4°F5.8°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗