KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

45%

32%

20%

15%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

HRESNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.40u · HRES −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	47.1%	68.0%	13.8%	38.1%	39.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	47.1%	68.0%	19.0%	38.1%	39.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	47.1%	68.0%	19.0%	38.1%	39.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	47.1%	68.0%	19.0%	38.1%	39.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	47.1%	68.0%	19.0%	38.1%	39.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	39.6%	68.0%	19.0%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	39.6%	68.0%	19.0%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	39.6%	68.0%	19.0%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	39.6%	68.0%	19.0%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	39.6%	63.2%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	39.6%	63.2%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	39.6%	63.2%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	39.6%	63.2%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	32.1%	63.1%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	32.1%	63.1%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	26.3%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	26.3%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	26.3%	32.0%	73.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	26.3%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	26.3%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	26.3%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	26.3%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	26.3%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	25.2%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	32.1%	62.6%	19.7%	14.6%	45.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	74.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	71.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	69.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	66.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗