KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

61%

25%

14%

11%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

AIFSNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.75u · AIFS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	16.3%	51.8%	16.8%	49.4%	78.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	16.3%	51.8%	16.8%	49.4%	78.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	16.3%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	78.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	16.3%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	16.3%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	12.4%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	71.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	12.4%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	71.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	12.4%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	71.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	12.4%	51.8%	14.2%	49.4%	71.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	12.4%	59.6%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T15:32:40+00:00	12.4%	60.7%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	12.4%	60.7%	21.8%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T17:03:29+00:00	10.8%	60.7%	13.6%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	10.8%	60.7%	13.6%	25.0%	71.7%
2026-10-20T18:33:47+00:00	10.8%	60.7%	13.6%	25.0%	71.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	69.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	66.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	65.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	61.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	59.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗