KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

35%

27%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.2¢Risks 30.25u

WN2NO 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.75u · WN2 −69.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	48.7%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.2%	1.7%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.9%	12.6%	1.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	34.3%	45.6%	16.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	42.4%	23.4%	50.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	33.0%	50.8%	28.1%	0.5%	4.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	56.5%	—	—	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	58%	69.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	65.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	61.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	59.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗