KABQ / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

38%

34%

21%

17%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.80u · WN2 −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	31.3%	55.0%	14.5%	67.4%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	31.3%	55.0%	14.5%	67.4%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	31.3%	55.0%	14.5%	67.4%	15.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	34.5%	55.0%	14.5%	67.4%	15.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	34.4%	55.0%	14.5%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	14.5%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	14.5%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	14.5%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	15.9%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	15.9%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	34.4%	55.1%	15.9%	67.4%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	15.9%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	15.9%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	15.9%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	15.9%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	15.9%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	37.0%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	20.5%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	28.9%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	73.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	25.8%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	77.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	25.8%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	77.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	25.8%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	77.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	25.8%	55.1%	12.8%	82.8%	77.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:40+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	25.8%	33.7%	22.0%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:29+00:00	21.3%	33.7%	16.8%	37.5%	77.6%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	21.3%	33.7%	16.8%	37.5%	77.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	70.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	61.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗