KABQ / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

38%

34%

21%

17%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.80u · WN2 −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	5.6%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	6.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.6%	10.8%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	61.1%	34.3%	8.5%	—	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	62.9%	71.5%	58.0%	8.4%	17.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	67.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	70.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	61.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗