KABQ / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

20%

11%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.95u · WN2 −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	19.7%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.2%	5.8%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	47.2%	22.4%	4.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	48.5%	58.0%	43.4%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	68.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	62.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	55.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	60.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗