KABQ / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

39%

36%

22%

19%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

ICONNO 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.25u · ICON −67.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	40.7%	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	68.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	51.3%	—	25.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	75.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	81.1%	—	25.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.2%	45.3%	20.8%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	65.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	63.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	61.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	56.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261027-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗