KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

81%

74%

68%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.8¢Risks 83.80u

AIFSNO 16.2¢Risks 16.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.20u · AIFS −16.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	89.4%	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	99.0%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	89.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	93.6%	99.8%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	91.0%	99.5%	99.3%	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	99.5%	99.9%	—	84.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	86.7%	76.6%	86.7%	—	66.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	89.6%	97.5%	68.4%	—	71.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	74.4%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	81.6%	91.3%	61.5%	—	64.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	63.4%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	75.2%	92.3%	33.0%	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	70.6%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	65.3%	88.1%	50.0%	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	63.9%	87.8%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	99.3%	85.8%	77.5%	—	53.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	81.7%	88.1%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	98.9%	92.6%	61.2%	—	53.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	98.9%	87.9%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	99.4%	86.3%	43.5%	100.0%	34.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	99.3%	87.1%	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	99.6%	92.4%	63.7%	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	99.9%	96.3%	45.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	99.8%	99.1%	65.8%	100.0%	36.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	99.7%	99.8%	57.7%	—	52.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	99.7%	99.3%	58.0%	100.0%	55.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	99.5%	94.6%	50.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	99.2%	97.9%	54.3%	100.0%	41.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	56.0%	92.0%	57.5%	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	54.7%	92.9%	60.9%	43.7%	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	64.5%	87.7%	64.5%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	97%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0346
IFS HRES	74%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0671
AIFS Single	68%	67.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗