KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

81%

74%

68%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.8¢Risks 83.80u

AIFSNO 16.2¢Risks 16.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.20u · AIFS −16.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:04+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	75.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	75.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	75.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	68.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	68.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	72.8%	100.0%	68.3%	60.6%	99.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	70.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	68.3%	58.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	68.3%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	68.3%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	68.3%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	68.3%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	68.3%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	63.4%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	67.4%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	69.7%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	69.7%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	69.7%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	69.7%	100.0%	69.7%	62.4%	99.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	69.7%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	69.7%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	69.7%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	69.7%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	74.1%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	99.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	67.4%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	70.9%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	70.9%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	70.9%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	63.8%	100.0%	70.9%	66.1%	98.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	70.9%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	70.9%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	70.9%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	70.9%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	98.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	97.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	97.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	97.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	74.3%	70.5%	97.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	74.3%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	66.7%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	76.5%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	81.4%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	81.4%	74.1%	97.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	81.4%	74.1%	97.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	97%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0346
IFS HRES	74%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0671
AIFS Single	68%	67.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗