KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

56%

54%

43%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.45u

HRESNO 28.5¢Risks 28.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.55u · HRES −28.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	83.0%	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	97.8%	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	98.9%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	94.5%	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	88.2%	99.5%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	83.8%	98.7%	98.3%	—	78.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	98.6%	99.6%	—	74.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	76.6%	63.5%	76.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	80.5%	94.1%	53.2%	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	59.7%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	68.5%	82.7%	45.0%	—	48.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	46.6%	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	59.6%	83.9%	19.0%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	53.6%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	47.2%	76.3%	32.2%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	45.3%	75.4%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	97.6%	72.1%	60.6%	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	65.6%	75.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	96.2%	82.4%	40.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	96.0%	73.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	97.6%	70.8%	23.8%	99.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	97.1%	71.4%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	98.1%	80.1%	40.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	99.2%	88.0%	23.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	98.8%	95.7%	41.3%	100.0%	16.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	98.1%	98.8%	32.5%	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	98.0%	96.3%	31.9%	100.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	97.0%	81.8%	24.2%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	95.3%	90.5%	26.8%	99.9%	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	27.2%	74.0%	28.5%	—	18.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	25.0%	75.0%	30.3%	17.1%	14.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	32.4%	63.0%	32.4%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	1.0000
ICON	99%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9742
AIFS Single	56%	68.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2862
IFS HRES	43%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1840
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗