KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

56%

54%

43%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.45u

HRESNO 28.5¢Risks 28.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.55u · HRES −28.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	44.8%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	60.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	44.8%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	60.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	44.8%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	60.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	44.8%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	60.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	44.8%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	60.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	98.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	98.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	98.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	51.1%	52.4%	98.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:17+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	51.1%	42.9%	98.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	50.0%	100.0%	53.5%	42.9%	98.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	50.0%	100.0%	53.5%	42.9%	98.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	50.0%	100.0%	53.5%	42.9%	98.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	55.5%	100.0%	53.5%	42.9%	98.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	55.6%	100.0%	53.5%	42.9%	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	1.0000
ICON	99%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9742
AIFS Single	56%	68.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2862
IFS HRES	43%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1840
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗