KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

63%

38%

35%

34%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

HRESNO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.55u · HRES −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	58.7%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	89.4%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	93.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	63.3%	95.7%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	54.2%	91.3%	89.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	90.0%	95.6%	—	39.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	40.9%	27.0%	40.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	44.4%	71.2%	17.9%	—	20.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	21.8%	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	28.6%	45.8%	12.0%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	12.3%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	19.6%	45.6%	2.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	15.0%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	11.0%	33.0%	5.3%	—	5.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.6%	30.9%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	77.5%	26.3%	17.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.7%	28.2%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	68.8%	35.9%	6.4%	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	66.5%	24.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	72.7%	20.6%	1.9%	96.5%	1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	68.5%	19.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	73.0%	27.0%	4.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	81.7%	37.0%	1.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	75.4%	56.2%	3.7%	96.0%	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	67.5%	74.1%	1.9%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	64.4%	54.0%	1.6%	97.4%	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	55.6%	20.1%	0.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	44.2%	30.5%	0.7%	90.5%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	10.5%	0.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	9.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	4.1%	0.6%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	79.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.7208
ICON	63%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3956
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	48%	72.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2285
AIFS Single	38%	70.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1452
WeatherNext 2	35%	70.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	34%	69.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1156

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗