KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

63%

38%

35%

34%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

HRESNO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.55u · HRES −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:44+00:00	24.2%	82.0%	28.5%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	24.2%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	24.2%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00	24.2%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T01:28:59+00:00	22.5%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	22.5%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	22.5%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:38+00:00	22.5%	82.0%	23.9%	81.6%	69.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	16.6%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	16.6%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	16.6%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	17.2%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:07+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	17.2%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	18.2%	84.9%	17.2%	70.3%	69.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	17.2%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	17.2%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	17.2%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	17.2%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	17.2%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:29+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	32.5%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	38.1%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	38.1%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	38.1%	84.9%	34.6%	34.0%	62.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	79.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.7208
ICON	63%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3956
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	48%	72.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2285
AIFS Single	38%	70.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1452
WeatherNext 2	35%	70.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	34%	69.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1156

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗