KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

62%

59%

10%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

WN2NO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.30u · WN2 −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	82.7%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	88.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	67.6%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	50.0%	91.5%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	40.3%	84.2%	81.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	82.0%	91.0%	—	26.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	27.0%	16.0%	27.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	29.5%	56.4%	9.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	11.8%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	16.2%	30.0%	5.6%	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	5.6%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.7%	29.1%	0.8%	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	6.9%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.6%	18.4%	1.9%	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.8%	16.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	60.6%	13.1%	7.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.8%	14.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	49.0%	19.0%	2.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	45.8%	11.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	52.2%	8.5%	0.4%	89.6%	0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	46.6%	7.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.2%	11.6%	1.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	61.9%	17.5%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	52.5%	32.0%	0.8%	87.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	42.3%	50.0%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	38.1%	28.4%	0.2%	89.9%	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	28.8%	6.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.1%	10.8%	0.1%	72.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	79.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6320
ICON	62%	77.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.3894
IFS HRES	59%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3481
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
National Blend	39%	72.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1513
AIFS Single	10%	67.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0098
WeatherNext 2	8%	68.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0062

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗