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KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
80%
ICON
62%
HRES
59%
AIFS
10%
WN2
8%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u
VS
WN2NO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.30u · WN2 −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:0013.3%73.5%13.2%72.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:0013.3%73.5%14.6%72.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:0013.3%73.5%14.6%72.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:0013.3%73.5%14.6%72.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:004.2%73.5%14.6%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:004.2%73.5%14.6%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:004.2%73.5%14.6%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:004.2%73.5%14.6%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:004.2%73.5%14.6%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:004.2%79.9%7.9%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:004.2%79.9%7.9%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:004.2%79.9%7.9%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:0010.2%79.9%7.9%59.0%62.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:009.9%79.5%7.9%59.0%62.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble80%79.7°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.6320
ICON62%77.6°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.3894
IFS HRES59%76.0°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.3481
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
National Blend39%72.0°F8.9°F2026-10-11 06:000.1513
AIFS Single10%67.7°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0098
WeatherNext 28%68.1°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0062

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗