KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

82%

81%

72%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.1¢Risks 40.05u

HRESNO 19.9¢Risks 9.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.95u · HRES −9.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	30.2%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	66.5%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	37.4%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	67.7%	47.2%	87.4%	—	76.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	88.7%	83.5%	87.6%	—	83.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	97.8%	86.2%	91.0%	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	88.1%	93.8%	84.6%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	31.9%	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	89.2%	94.9%	74.9%	—	70.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	74.7%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	70.1%	90.3%	73.1%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	66.6%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	72.6%	86.7%	73.4%	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	74.7%	84.1%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	81.0%	82.9%	81.7%	—	56.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	74.3%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	78.1%	86.1%	73.2%	—	65.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	85.6%	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	74.5%	95.0%	74.5%	—	67.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	78.6%	97.8%	3.3%	—	69.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	83.2%	96.9%	80.1%	—	69.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	85.5%	96.3%	83.3%	—	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	85.6%	97.0%	84.9%	69.2%	76.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	85.0%	97.2%	85.7%	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	89.9%	98.1%	85.9%	66.9%	78.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	90.2%	98.5%	87.5%	—	80.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	93.7%	99.0%	89.2%	80.9%	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	91.4%	99.4%	90.1%	—	79.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	89.8%	99.6%	86.6%	76.2%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	93.7%	98.9%	93.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	65.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	66.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	82%	65.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	64.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗