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KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
AIFS
86%
ICON
82%
EPS
81%
HRES
72%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.1¢Risks 40.05u
VS
HRESNO 19.9¢Risks 9.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.95u · HRES −9.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 16:1910-15 22:2110-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:0086.9%80.6%90.4%70.4%86.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:0086.9%80.6%88.8%70.4%86.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:0086.9%80.6%88.8%70.4%86.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:0086.9%80.6%88.8%70.4%86.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:0086.9%80.6%88.8%70.4%86.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:0087.9%80.6%88.8%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:0087.9%80.6%88.8%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:0087.9%80.6%88.8%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:0087.9%80.6%88.8%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:0087.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:0087.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0087.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:0085.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:0085.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:0085.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0085.9%80.6%88.2%72.0%82.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%65.5°F3.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single86%66.1°F4.3°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON82%65.2°F4.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%64.5°F3.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%64.1°F4.5°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend56%62.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%62.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗