KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

52%

43%

38%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.9¢Risks 23.93u

HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 26.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.08u · HRES −26.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00	29.5%	72.7%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	29.5%	72.7%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	29.5%	72.7%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	52.1%	72.7%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	52.1%	72.7%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	52.4%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	53.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:07+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	53.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	53.2%	84.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	53.2%	73.1%	62.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	53.2%	73.1%	62.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	53.2%	73.1%	62.4%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	53.2%	73.1%	62.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	53.2%	73.1%	62.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:29+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	78.4%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	84.2%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	84.2%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	84.2%	65.1%	60.4%	73.1%	62.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:26+00:00	42.8%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	77.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	42.8%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	77.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	42.8%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	77.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	42.8%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	77.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	42.8%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	77.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	47.4%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	47.4%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	47.4%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	47.4%	65.8%	66.9%	48.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:17+00:00	47.4%	65.8%	66.9%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	47.4%	39.3%	56.4%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	47.4%	39.3%	56.4%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	47.4%	39.3%	56.4%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	45.7%	39.3%	56.4%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	45.7%	39.3%	56.4%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	56.4%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	56.4%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	56.4%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	52.1%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	52.1%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	45.7%	42.8%	52.1%	33.0%	50.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	52.1%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	52.1%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	52.1%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	52.1%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	52.1%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	54.3%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	53.5%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	53.5%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	53.5%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	53.5%	42.8%	57.5%	38.2%	52.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	65.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	52%	65.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗