KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

52%

43%

38%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.9¢Risks 23.93u

HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 26.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.08u · HRES −26.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	13.0%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	41.9%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	6.5%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	15.9%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	40.3%	21.9%	67.0%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	68.3%	59.4%	66.3%	—	59.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	89.3%	62.7%	71.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	64.8%	77.0%	58.7%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	9.9%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	65.5%	78.7%	43.4%	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	42.4%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	36.3%	66.2%	39.6%	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	31.8%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	37.3%	57.3%	38.2%	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	38.8%	51.9%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	46.1%	49.0%	47.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	36.3%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	39.8%	52.1%	34.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	50.0%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	33.1%	70.8%	33.1%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	36.7%	81.0%	0.1%	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	41.9%	75.8%	37.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	44.0%	71.7%	40.5%	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	42.6%	73.4%	41.3%	22.7%	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	39.8%	73.1%	41.0%	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	47.3%	77.0%	39.4%	18.2%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	45.8%	77.9%	40.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	52.9%	80.9%	41.4%	28.0%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	44.0%	83.8%	41.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	37.6%	84.8%	31.7%	19.2%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.1%	73.3%	43.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	65.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	52%	65.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗