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KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
HRES
80%
WN2
60%
AIFS
24%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u
VS
AIFSNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.70u · AIFS −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:0010-11 07:3110-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:0023.6%81.0%60.4%79.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:0023.6%81.0%60.4%79.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:0023.6%81.0%60.4%79.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:0023.6%81.0%60.4%79.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:0023.6%81.0%60.4%79.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%72.3°F6.6°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES80%71.8°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%67.9°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
National Blend52%67.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single24%62.5°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗