KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

60%

24%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

AIFSNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.70u · AIFS −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	35.9%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	12.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	33.6%	17.1%	60.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	61.6%	52.2%	59.4%	—	52.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	85.4%	55.3%	64.9%	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	57.1%	70.5%	50.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	6.8%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	57.5%	72.1%	35.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	34.2%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	28.4%	57.8%	31.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	24.2%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.9%	48.2%	29.7%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	30.1%	42.5%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	36.6%	39.4%	37.6%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	27.4%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	30.3%	41.8%	25.1%	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	39.5%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	23.8%	60.8%	23.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	26.7%	72.4%	0.1%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	31.0%	65.9%	27.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	32.5%	60.7%	29.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	30.9%	62.3%	29.8%	14.4%	19.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	28.0%	61.5%	29.1%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	34.3%	65.7%	27.3%	10.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	32.5%	66.2%	27.6%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	38.6%	69.5%	28.0%	17.2%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	29.8%	72.8%	27.2%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.8%	73.7%	19.2%	10.2%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	58.2%	28.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	72.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	71.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	67.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	62.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗