KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

48%

41%

35%

28%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

AIFSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.85u · AIFS −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	30.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	9.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	27.5%	13.0%	53.5%	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	54.4%	44.9%	52.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	80.5%	47.7%	57.6%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	49.2%	63.3%	42.9%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	4.5%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	49.2%	64.7%	27.9%	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	26.7%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	21.4%	49.1%	24.1%	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	17.8%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	21.6%	39.1%	22.3%	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	22.4%	33.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	27.9%	30.4%	28.7%	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	19.7%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	21.9%	32.1%	17.6%	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	29.8%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	16.2%	50.0%	16.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.3%	62.2%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	21.5%	54.6%	18.3%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	22.5%	48.8%	19.9%	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	20.8%	50.0%	19.9%	8.5%	12.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	18.2%	48.7%	19.1%	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	23.0%	52.7%	17.3%	5.7%	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	21.1%	52.8%	17.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	25.6%	55.8%	17.2%	9.5%	10.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	18.1%	59.0%	16.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	13.4%	59.4%	10.2%	4.8%	4.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	41.8%	16.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	70.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	66.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	65.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗