KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

48%

41%

35%

28%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

AIFSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.85u · AIFS −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:07+00:00	74.0%	50.7%	44.4%	61.8%	54.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	74.0%	50.7%	44.4%	61.8%	54.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	74.0%	50.7%	51.6%	61.8%	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	74.0%	50.7%	51.6%	61.8%	54.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	74.0%	50.7%	51.6%	61.8%	54.4%
2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	51.6%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	51.6%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	51.6%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	51.6%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	51.6%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:23+00:00	69.5%	50.7%	69.3%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	69.5%	53.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	69.5%	53.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	55.3%	53.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	55.2%	53.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	55.2%	53.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	55.2%	46.0%	69.3%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	55.2%	45.9%	69.3%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	55.2%	45.9%	63.7%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	55.2%	45.9%	63.7%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	55.2%	45.9%	63.7%	73.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	63.7%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	63.7%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	63.7%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	63.7%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	60.4%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:21+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	66.1%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	68.5%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	68.5%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	54.5%	45.9%	68.5%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:48+00:00	52.4%	45.9%	68.5%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	52.4%	45.9%	68.5%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	52.4%	45.9%	68.5%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	52.4%	45.9%	68.5%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	52.4%	45.9%	68.5%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	52.4%	36.6%	42.2%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	52.4%	36.6%	42.2%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	52.4%	36.6%	42.2%	39.1%	66.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	43.6%	36.6%	42.3%	39.1%	66.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	43.6%	36.6%	42.3%	39.1%	66.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	42.3%	39.1%	66.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	42.3%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	43.6%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	40.4%	39.2%	66.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	48.1%	35.4%	66.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	48.1%	35.1%	66.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	54.0%	41.3%	48.1%	35.1%	66.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	27.9%	41.3%	48.1%	35.1%	66.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	27.9%	41.3%	48.1%	35.1%	66.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	27.9%	41.3%	48.1%	35.1%	66.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	70.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	66.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	65.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗