KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

70%

66%

63%

61%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.0¢Risks 34.50u

ICONNO 31.0¢Risks 15.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.50u · ICON −15.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	41.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	9.9%	85.3%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	47.9%	82.9%	32.3%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	74.6%	70.3%	71.5%	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	76.1%	86.7%	71.7%	—	61.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	78.8%	46.8%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.4%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	45.0%	75.5%	63.1%	—	42.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	33.4%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	66.2%	76.6%	65.4%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	40.2%	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	57.3%	69.5%	44.5%	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	76.9%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	55.8%	77.5%	40.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	62.8%	83.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	68.8%	86.1%	37.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	78.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	76.2%	86.3%	34.1%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	76.0%	82.5%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	76.7%	86.6%	25.1%	41.9%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	69.6%	89.8%	26.3%	—	57.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	76.4%	88.2%	29.8%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	70.9%	89.1%	29.1%	—	48.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	64.4%	88.7%	29.5%	34.3%	46.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	67.5%	88.9%	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	68.2%	90.5%	34.5%	50.0%	57.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	74.0%	91.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	70.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	68.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗