KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

70%

66%

63%

61%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.0¢Risks 34.50u

ICONNO 31.0¢Risks 15.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.50u · ICON −15.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.6%	46.8%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	77.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	77.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	77.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	72.2%	52.4%	84.0%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	72.2%	52.4%	84.0%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	72.2%	52.4%	84.0%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	72.2%	52.4%	84.0%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	72.2%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	72.2%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	72.2%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	78.2%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	61.1%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	65.4%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	65.4%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	65.4%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	65.4%	52.5%	76.6%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	65.4%	59.3%	73.3%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	65.4%	59.3%	73.3%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	65.4%	59.3%	73.3%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	65.4%	59.3%	73.3%	43.6%	62.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	75.1%	59.2%	73.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	73.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	73.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	73.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	62.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	74.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	74.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	74.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	75.3%	59.7%	74.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	75.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	71.3%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	74.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	69.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	69.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	75.1%	63.1%	69.3%	62.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	77.7%	63.1%	69.3%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	77.7%	63.1%	69.3%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	77.7%	63.1%	69.3%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	77.7%	63.1%	69.3%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	77.7%	63.1%	69.3%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	77.7%	70.7%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	77.7%	70.7%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	77.7%	70.7%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	76.9%	70.7%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	77.0%	70.4%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	70.8%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	67.4%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	67.4%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	77.0%	71.3%	67.4%	60.6%	74.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	67.4%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	67.4%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	67.4%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	67.4%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	67.4%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	78.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	70.8%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	74.1%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	74.1%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	74.1%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	82.5%	71.3%	74.1%	63.4%	73.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	82.6%	71.3%	74.1%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	82.6%	71.3%	74.1%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	82.6%	71.3%	74.1%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	82.6%	71.3%	74.1%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	82.6%	71.3%	74.1%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	66.0%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	66.0%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	82.6%	70.1%	66.0%	62.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	76.9%	69.8%	66.0%	62.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	76.9%	69.8%	66.0%	62.7%	61.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	70.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	68.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗