KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

60%

59%

24%

24%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

EPSNO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.20u · EPS −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	2.5%	64.5%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	22.4%	59.7%	12.2%	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	47.1%	42.0%	43.4%	—	35.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	47.7%	63.5%	42.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	49.2%	50.0%	18.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.0%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	16.8%	44.2%	30.8%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	9.9%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	32.2%	43.9%	31.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	12.5%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	23.0%	33.9%	14.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	41.5%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	20.3%	41.3%	11.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	24.9%	48.0%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	29.4%	52.1%	9.0%	—	15.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	35.5%	38.5%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	35.1%	50.0%	6.6%	0.0%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	33.6%	42.2%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	33.1%	47.7%	3.3%	8.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	24.4%	52.4%	3.3%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	29.8%	47.5%	3.7%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	22.8%	47.4%	3.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	16.5%	44.6%	3.0%	4.0%	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	17.3%	43.1%	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	16.3%	44.2%	3.2%	7.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	74%	75.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	72.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	72.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	64.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	68.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗