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KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
74%
WN2
60%
AIFS
59%
ICON
24%
EPS
24%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u
VS
EPSNO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.20u · EPS −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:0059.2%23.5%60.4%74.1%23.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:0059.2%23.5%60.4%74.1%23.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:0059.2%23.5%60.4%74.1%23.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:0059.2%23.5%60.4%74.1%23.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:0059.2%23.5%60.4%74.1%23.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES74%75.6°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%72.9°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
AIFS Single59%72.8°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F7.7°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON24%64.4°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%68.1°F4.7°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗