KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

48%

48%

43%

15%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

EPSNO 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.35u · EPS −68.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	1.1%	51.3%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	13.4%	45.8%	6.5%	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	33.0%	28.5%	29.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	33.0%	48.5%	28.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	33.7%	34.5%	10.0%	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	0.0%	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	28.6%	17.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	4.3%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	18.4%	27.7%	17.8%	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	5.5%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.5%	19.0%	6.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	24.6%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	9.4%	24.0%	4.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	11.9%	29.1%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	14.5%	32.1%	3.2%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	18.3%	20.5%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	17.6%	29.2%	2.0%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	16.1%	22.3%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	15.3%	26.0%	0.8%	2.5%	5.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	9.7%	29.3%	0.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.4%	24.6%	0.8%	0.0%	3.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	8.2%	23.8%	0.6%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.0%	21.0%	0.5%	0.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.0%	19.1%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	19.1%	0.5%	1.5%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	5.1%	18.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	73.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	73.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	69.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗