KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

48%

48%

43%

15%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

EPSNO 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.35u · EPS −68.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:23+00:00	45.0%	12.5%	37.3%	63.0%	17.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	45.0%	18.3%	37.3%	63.0%	17.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	45.0%	18.3%	37.3%	63.0%	17.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	42.2%	18.3%	37.3%	63.0%	17.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	42.2%	18.3%	37.4%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	42.2%	18.3%	37.4%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	42.2%	14.7%	37.4%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	42.2%	14.7%	37.4%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	42.2%	14.7%	47.6%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	42.2%	14.7%	47.6%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	42.2%	14.7%	47.6%	63.0%	17.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	47.6%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	47.6%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	47.6%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	47.6%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	40.9%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	48.6%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	48.6%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	48.6%	14.7%	48.4%	47.5%	42.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	73.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	73.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	69.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗