KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

86%

75%

73%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u

HRESNO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.60u · HRES −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	73.0%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	85.9%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	16.7%	27.7%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	75.9%	21.9%	29.8%	—	69.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	64.3%	83.5%	61.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	61.3%	65.6%	71.1%	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	80.5%	77.0%	45.2%	—	60.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.4%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	79.3%	83.2%	38.5%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	81.0%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	69.3%	92.0%	24.8%	—	68.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	79.8%	95.5%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	81.0%	94.5%	40.0%	—	72.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	90.8%	93.0%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	83.5%	94.1%	49.0%	—	79.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	89.5%	94.0%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	88.7%	95.6%	73.2%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	93.2%	96.0%	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	93.8%	96.0%	67.9%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	90.3%	96.0%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	88.4%	96.0%	64.8%	0.0%	76.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	92.2%	96.9%	61.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	92.0%	98.0%	62.3%	72.4%	78.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	93.6%	98.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	77.1°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	72.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	74.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗