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KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
WN2
88%
ICON
86%
EPS
75%
HRES
73%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u
VS
HRESNO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.60u · HRES −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 16:1910-15 22:2110-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:0073.4%74.8%92.4%68.6%87.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:0073.4%74.8%89.7%68.6%87.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:0073.4%74.8%89.7%68.6%87.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:0073.4%74.8%89.7%68.6%87.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:0073.4%74.8%89.7%68.6%87.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:0093.7%74.8%89.7%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:0093.7%74.8%89.7%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:0093.7%74.8%89.7%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:0093.7%74.8%89.7%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:0093.7%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:0093.7%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0093.7%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:0088.3%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:0088.3%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:0088.3%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0088.3%74.8%87.9%73.3%86.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%76.4°F5.0°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%75.3°F4.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON86%77.1°F6.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%72.3°F2.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES73%74.1°F5.8°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend56%71.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.2°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗