KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

82%

75%

73%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 81.5¢Risks 40.77u

HRESNO 18.4¢Risks 9.22u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.22u · HRES −9.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:50+00:00	54.4%	25.2%	80.4%	63.1%	67.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	54.4%	25.2%	79.2%	63.1%	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	54.4%	25.2%	79.2%	63.1%	67.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	54.4%	25.2%	79.2%	63.1%	67.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:09+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	79.2%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	79.2%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	79.2%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	79.2%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	79.2%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	91.1%	25.2%	82.9%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	91.1%	45.7%	82.9%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	91.1%	45.7%	82.9%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	58.8%	45.7%	82.9%	55.5%	79.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	58.8%	45.7%	82.9%	55.5%	79.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	58.8%	47.0%	82.9%	55.5%	79.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	78.4%	47.0%	75.2%	60.9%	77.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	78.4%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	77.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	78.4%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	77.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	78.4%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	77.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	78.4%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	77.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	86.7%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	86.7%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	86.7%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	86.7%	47.0%	77.5%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	86.7%	58.9%	71.4%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	86.7%	58.9%	71.4%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	86.7%	58.9%	71.4%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	86.7%	58.9%	71.4%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	88.9%	58.9%	71.4%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	71.4%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	71.4%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	71.4%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	88.9%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.9%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	87.2%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	74.1%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	78.2%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	78.2%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	89.7%	61.4%	78.2%	69.8%	76.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	92.9%	61.4%	78.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	92.9%	61.4%	78.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	92.9%	61.4%	78.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	92.9%	61.4%	78.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	92.9%	61.4%	78.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	92.9%	75.1%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	92.9%	75.1%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	92.9%	75.1%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	91.6%	75.1%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	91.6%	74.4%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	85.7%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	88.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	88.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	91.6%	77.0%	88.2%	76.3%	75.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	90.5%	77.0%	88.2%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	90.5%	77.0%	88.2%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	90.5%	77.0%	88.2%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	90.5%	77.0%	88.2%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	90.5%	77.0%	88.2%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	90.5%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	90.5%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	90.5%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	89.9%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	92.3%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	92.3%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	92.3%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	90.1%	76.2%	92.3%	75.6%	80.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	92.0%	76.2%	92.3%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	92.0%	76.2%	92.3%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	92.0%	76.2%	92.3%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	92.0%	76.2%	92.3%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	92.0%	76.2%	92.3%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	92.0%	75.5%	90.2%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	92.0%	75.5%	90.2%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	92.0%	75.5%	90.2%	72.9%	82.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	89.1%	75.1%	90.2%	72.9%	82.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	89.1%	75.1%	90.2%	72.9%	82.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	76.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	82%	75.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗