KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

82%

75%

73%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 81.5¢Risks 40.77u

HRESNO 18.4¢Risks 9.22u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +9.22u · HRES −9.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	61.8%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	77.4%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	9.6%	17.6%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	63.8%	13.0%	18.9%	—	56.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	50.0%	72.8%	47.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	46.2%	50.8%	56.8%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	67.7%	63.3%	30.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.1%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	70.7%	23.8%	—	46.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	67.4%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	52.6%	83.3%	13.1%	—	51.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	64.9%	89.2%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	66.1%	87.1%	23.7%	—	55.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	80.4%	84.1%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	68.7%	85.8%	30.4%	—	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	77.4%	85.4%	—	—	68.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	75.7%	88.2%	54.1%	0.0%	66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	83.1%	88.9%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	83.8%	88.6%	46.7%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	76.9%	88.2%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	73.0%	87.9%	41.9%	0.0%	55.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	79.2%	89.8%	38.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	78.3%	92.5%	37.7%	48.8%	56.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	80.9%	93.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	76.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	82%	75.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	74.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗