KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

64%

61%

53%

18%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.40u · EPS −57.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	43.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	60.3%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	3.5%	7.5%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	43.0%	4.9%	7.9%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	29.1%	52.2%	26.6%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	25.1%	28.9%	34.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	44.4%	39.7%	13.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.0%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	40.9%	46.7%	9.0%	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	42.4%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	27.7%	62.1%	3.8%	—	26.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	38.5%	71.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	39.1%	67.0%	7.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	55.7%	61.2%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.4%	63.4%	10.7%	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	50.0%	61.8%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	46.9%	66.0%	25.1%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	56.3%	66.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	56.5%	64.9%	18.3%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	45.5%	63.3%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	39.6%	61.5%	14.0%	0.0%	23.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	46.4%	64.1%	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	43.8%	69.2%	10.6%	16.6%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	46.1%	69.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	77.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	77.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	72.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗