KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

64%

61%

53%

18%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.40u · EPS −57.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:48+00:00	65.9%	20.2%	61.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	65.9%	20.2%	61.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	65.9%	20.2%	61.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	65.9%	20.2%	61.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	65.9%	20.2%	61.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	65.9%	15.9%	58.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	65.9%	15.9%	58.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	65.9%	15.9%	58.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	60.5%	15.9%	58.7%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	60.5%	15.9%	58.7%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	58.7%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	58.7%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	60.5%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	26.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	54.8%	52.5%	63.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	65.9%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	61.2%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	61.2%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	61.2%	18.1%	67.1%	53.1%	63.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	77.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	77.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	72.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗