KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.53u

EPSNO 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.47u · EPS −44.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:49+00:00	31.5%	1.3%	26.3%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	31.5%	1.3%	26.3%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	31.5%	1.3%	26.3%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	31.5%	1.3%	26.3%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	31.5%	1.3%	26.3%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	21.6%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	21.6%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	21.6%	23.4%	12.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	26.7%	0.7%	21.7%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	26.7%	0.7%	21.7%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	21.7%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	21.7%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	26.7%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	13.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	44.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	44.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:02+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	44.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	18.8%	23.4%	44.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	31.5%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	27.3%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	44.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	26.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	26.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	26.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	28.7%	23.9%	26.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:18+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	28.7%	8.5%	26.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	23.7%	0.0%	15.8%	8.5%	26.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	23.7%	0.0%	15.8%	8.5%	26.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	23.7%	0.0%	15.8%	8.5%	26.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	13.7%	0.0%	15.8%	8.5%	26.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	14.5%	0.0%	16.2%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.2%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.2%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.2%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.7%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.7%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.7%	8.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	16.7%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	16.7%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	16.7%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	16.7%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	16.7%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:50+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	19.6%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	18.4%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	18.4%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	18.4%	18.9%	24.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:09+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	18.4%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	18.4%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	18.4%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	18.4%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	18.4%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	39.7%	0.1%	15.9%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	15.9%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	15.9%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.9%	10.6%	30.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	15.9%	10.6%	30.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	8.3%	0.1%	15.9%	10.6%	30.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	12.1%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	12.1%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	12.1%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	12.1%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	31.5%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	10.3%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.7%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	26.4%	0.9%	5.6%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	26.4%	0.9%	5.6%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	26.4%	0.9%	5.6%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	26.4%	0.9%	5.6%	13.4%	10.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	30.0%	0.9%	5.6%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	5.6%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	5.6%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	5.6%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	30.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	10.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	7.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	6.6%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	8.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	8.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	31.5%	1.1%	8.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	8.5%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	8.5%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	8.5%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	8.5%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	34.6%	1.1%	8.5%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	34.6%	1.5%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	34.6%	1.5%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	34.6%	1.5%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	31.2%	1.5%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	31.2%	1.8%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	9.6%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	11.8%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	11.8%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	31.2%	1.3%	11.8%	14.1%	9.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	28.7%	1.3%	11.8%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	28.7%	1.3%	11.8%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	28.7%	1.3%	11.8%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	28.7%	1.3%	11.8%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	28.7%	1.3%	11.8%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	28.7%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	28.7%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	28.7%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	13.6%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	17.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	17.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	28.0%	1.6%	17.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	20.8%	1.3%	9.8%	6.8%	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	20.8%	1.3%	9.8%	6.8%	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	20.8%	1.3%	9.8%	6.8%	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	77.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	76.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗