KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.53u

EPSNO 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.47u · EPS −44.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	28.9%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.4%	1.1%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	14.5%	0.6%	1.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	7.1%	19.4%	6.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.2%	6.5%	8.7%	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	12.7%	10.4%	1.7%	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	10.1%	12.9%	0.9%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	10.3%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	4.5%	21.4%	0.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	7.8%	28.7%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	7.6%	23.7%	0.5%	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	14.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	7.2%	19.0%	0.7%	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	10.5%	17.0%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	8.6%	19.0%	2.5%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	12.1%	18.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	16.2%	1.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.3%	14.1%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.2%	12.1%	0.5%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.5%	12.6%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	14.4%	0.2%	0.6%	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.3%	13.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	77.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	76.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗