KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

81%

68%

67%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

EPSNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.15u · EPS −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	89.4%	62.2%	84.6%	65.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	89.4%	64.4%	84.6%	65.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	89.4%	64.4%	84.6%	65.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	81.3%	64.4%	84.6%	65.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	81.0%	64.4%	84.2%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	84.2%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:56+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	84.2%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	82.3%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	82.3%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	82.3%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	81.0%	66.6%	82.3%	65.7%	38.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	92.5%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	91.1%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	91.1%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	91.1%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	91.1%	66.6%	82.3%	68.0%	81.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	81.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	78.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	82.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	74.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗