KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

81%

68%

67%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

EPSNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.15u · EPS −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	55.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	66.5%	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	85.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	72.2%	—	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	68.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	10.5%	42.6%	—	56.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	58.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	76.5%	48.6%	23.0%	54.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	57.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	80.6%	62.9%	18.9%	53.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	68.4%	46.9%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	73.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	74.5%	79.4%	45.2%	61.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	4.1%	81.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	68.5%	82.7%	40.9%	57.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	48.3%	79.9%	—	56.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	65.4%	82.8%	43.0%	56.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	64.1%	81.0%	—	56.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	66.1%	85.1%	29.7%	55.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	67.4%	82.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	70.4%	84.1%	42.3%	63.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	67.4%	83.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	81.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	78.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	82.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	74.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗