KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

37%

29%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

EPSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.30u · EPS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	23.7%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	39.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	30.2%	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	53.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	34.8%	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	30.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	1.2%	11.4%	—	19.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	36.9%	13.7%	3.6%	17.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	40.6%	22.1%	2.4%	15.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	25.1%	11.0%	15.5%	16.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	29.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	29.5%	35.2%	9.3%	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.1%	36.4%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	21.9%	37.7%	6.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.2%	32.6%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	17.8%	35.4%	6.8%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	16.1%	31.8%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.6%	36.4%	2.8%	10.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	16.5%	30.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	17.7%	32.1%	4.9%	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	14.6%	29.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	78.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	78.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	76.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗