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KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
61%
AIFS
52%
EPS
45%
HRES
44%
ICON
44%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 26.22u
VS
ICONNO 47.6¢Risks 23.78u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.78u · ICON −23.78u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 38.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-13 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:007.3%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:008.7%———3.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0043.1%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0056.4%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———40.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0038.5%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0034.9%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0061.0%———43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0022.0%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0068.4%———47.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0057.4%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0060.5%———61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0058.5%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0074.4%———53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0076.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0072.3%———57.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0056.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0062.3%———59.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0064.1%—31.1%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0058.7%—62.7%—52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0061.2%—89.3%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0060.8%———36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0062.7%—61.0%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0067.0%—8.1%—52.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0060.1%—59.5%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0070.5%—9.6%—50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0076.3%—64.3%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0031.8%9.9%53.4%—48.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0070.4%—71.6%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0058.4%61.1%69.5%17.1%52.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0061.3%—69.9%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0055.1%53.6%67.0%38.5%47.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0041.1%—61.1%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0038.0%21.1%70.4%32.3%38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0040.0%—60.0%—28.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0036.7%32.3%58.7%33.0%34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0029.7%3.1%65.1%—29.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0027.9%19.5%58.3%13.4%23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0023.9%18.4%50.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0022.1%29.9%51.7%19.6%29.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—22.2%51.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 261%75.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single52%74.7°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%74.2°F2.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES44%73.8°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON44%73.8°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend33%73.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗