KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

40%

33%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

EPSNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.60u · EPS −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	21.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	51.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	82.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	48.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	4.3%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	5.1%	—	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	5.2%	40.0%	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	58.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	47.2%	56.3%	9.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	56.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	39.2%	52.9%	25.4%	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	11.8%	56.1%	20.0%	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	44.5%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	19.5%	42.9%	20.1%	21.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	49.2%	—	16.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	10.1%	41.7%	6.3%	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	9.2%	34.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	16.7%	34.6%	9.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.2%	34.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	74.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	74.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗