KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

40%

33%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

EPSNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.60u · EPS −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	70.5%	29.7%	76.6%	44.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	70.5%	29.7%	76.6%	44.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	70.5%	29.7%	76.6%	44.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	70.5%	29.7%	76.6%	44.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	66.5%	29.7%	76.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	66.5%	29.7%	76.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	66.5%	29.7%	76.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	66.5%	29.7%	76.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	66.5%	29.7%	76.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	78.0%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	78.0%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	78.0%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	53.7%	27.7%	78.0%	39.4%	62.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	53.7%	28.2%	77.9%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	77.9%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	77.9%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	77.9%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	74.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	74.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	53.7%	29.7%	74.6%	39.3%	62.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	74.6%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	74.6%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	74.6%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	74.6%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	74.6%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	51.5%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	67.3%	25.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	49.2%	29.7%	67.3%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	49.2%	29.7%	67.3%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	49.2%	29.7%	67.3%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	49.2%	29.7%	67.3%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	49.2%	29.7%	67.3%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	49.2%	19.2%	59.6%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	49.2%	19.2%	59.6%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	49.2%	19.2%	59.6%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	42.8%	19.2%	59.6%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	42.8%	19.2%	59.6%	32.7%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	74.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	74.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗