KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u

EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.88u · EPS −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	62.3%	5.5%	60.8%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	60.8%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	60.8%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	60.8%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	62.3%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	59.3%	24.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	59.3%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	48.6%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:10+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	55.5%	27.3%	54.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	44.9%	6.3%	55.5%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	44.9%	6.3%	55.5%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	44.9%	6.3%	55.5%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	44.9%	6.3%	55.5%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	44.9%	6.3%	55.5%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	44.9%	3.8%	55.1%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	44.9%	3.8%	55.1%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	44.9%	3.8%	55.1%	23.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	32.2%	3.8%	55.1%	23.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	32.2%	4.2%	55.1%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	55.1%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	55.1%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	55.1%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	50.9%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	50.9%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	32.2%	4.7%	50.9%	23.4%	45.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	50.9%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	50.9%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	50.9%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	50.9%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	50.9%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	30.2%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	31.5%	4.7%	42.4%	13.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	26.6%	4.7%	42.4%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	26.6%	4.7%	42.4%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	26.6%	4.7%	42.4%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	26.6%	4.7%	42.4%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	26.6%	4.7%	42.4%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	26.6%	1.5%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	26.6%	1.5%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	26.6%	1.5%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	21.5%	1.5%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	21.5%	1.5%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	31.3%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	29.6%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	29.6%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	29.6%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	29.6%	16.7%	22.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	29.6%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	29.6%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	29.6%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	29.6%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	20.4%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	27.2%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	24.0%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	24.0%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	17.1%	1.0%	24.0%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	14.8%	1.0%	24.0%	12.7%	12.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	14.8%	1.0%	24.0%	12.7%	12.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	14.8%	1.0%	24.0%	12.7%	12.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	14.8%	1.0%	24.0%	12.7%	12.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	14.8%	1.0%	24.0%	12.7%	12.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	14.8%	1.7%	14.2%	12.7%	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	16%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	74.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	73.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	74.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗